The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the formation of 15 independent countries, including Ukraine. In 2014, Russia illegally seized and annexed Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula bordering the Black Sea. In response, the U.S. government imposed sanctions.
In 2022, tensions between Ukraine and Russia are far from over. After the annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported losing “80% of oil and gas deposits in the Black Sea and a significant part of the port infrastructure.”
In addition to gaining similar economic advantages, controlling the Ukraine mainland would give Russia greater military power over the region. Ukraine is an example of a former Soviet republic turned democracy. Thus, while Ukraine is not a member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia sees Ukraine’s friendly military ties with the US and NATO as a threat and hopes to restore the former Soviet Union’s dominance.
US intelligence officials estimate that Russia has 70,000 to 100,000 troops deployed near the border and another force of approximately 175,000 prepared should Russian President Vladamir Putin decide to invade.
Consequently, the second week of January was filled with several high-stakes meetings between the US, NATO, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Russia. During these talks, Russia demanded a list of security guarantees, including to never allow Ukraine or any other former Soviet state to join NATO, to ban intermediate-range missiles in Europe, and to prevent further NATO expansion Eastward. Russia also requested that the US not build any military bases or cooperate militarily with any former Soviet state which is not yet a member of NATO.
Russia claims to have no intention of invading Ukraine. Some analysts are still skeptical and point out that the possibility of war remains. Others see the tension as a Russian intimidation tactic to obtain concessions that boost its interests.
However, negotiations seem to have stalled. Russian deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov called the talks a “dead-end.” While US officials were open to discussing missile deployments in Europe, the United States and NATO rejected Russia’s demands to prevent certain countries from joining NATO forever on the grounds that it violates NATO’s “open door policy.” Meanwhile, Russia has not budged either. In the words of Russian diplomat Sergey Lavrov, “We have warned them, our partners, primarily the Americans, that this is not a menu. It’s a package.”
Russia has threatened using “military technical measures” if diplomacy fails. Since the talks, some analysts have reported that Russia is continuing to amass more forces near Ukraine and move military equipment.
If Russia invades, it is unclear how other countries will respond. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of “massive consequences,” but has not detailed any concrete steps. Economic sanctions could be one possible course of action. Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, Ben Wallace, the British Defense Secretary noted that “it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia.”
While further dialogue through a four-way summit between Ukrainian, French, German, and Russian leaders is scheduled for the end of January, it is unclear what further compromises could be reached to end the conflict.
Sources:
https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/ukraine-russia-and-the-u-s-policy-response/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/europe/putin-nato-russia-ukraine.html?action=click
https://www.voanews.com/a/no-signs-of-russia-deescalating-on-ukraine-border/6362252.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/07/what-kazakhstans-unrest-means-for-russia/
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/13/1072865429/russia-ukraine-conflict-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/russia-us-ukraine-biden-putin/
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/20/russia-ukraine-nato-military-invasion/
Photos:
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/russia-ukraine-tensions-grow/