On November 2, the Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency as rebel forces advanced to nearly 200 miles from the capital, Addis Ababa. This civil war has persisted since last November but the conflict represents deeper tensions rooted in ethnic and political division.
60 percent of the Ethiopian population consists of the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara. Tigray is a region of northern Ethiopia, home of Tigrayans, the third largest ethnic group in Ethiopia.
While Tigrayans constitute 6 to 7 percent of the total population, they formed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which led a powerful military resistance in the 1970s that overthrew the communist government in Ethiopia. For three decades of TPLF governance, although Ethiopia experienced economic growth, TPLF tortured detainees, suppressed political opponents, and marginalized the Amhara and Oromo groups.
Popular anti-government uprisings paved the way for Abiy Ahmed, who is Omoro, to assume his current role as prime minister in 2018. Abiy consolidated power from the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Front that the TPLF had founded into a new political party called the Prosperity Party, which led to the exclusion of the TPLF. TPLF leaders, cut off from their previous position in the national government, retreated to Tigray where they maintained power.
However, in September 2020, TPLF demonstrated their resistance when they defied Abiy’s decision to postpone regional parliamentary elections due to COVID-19 concerns. Abiy called Tigray’s election illegal and withheld funds from TPLF leadership.
On November 4, 2020, Abiy accused TPLF of attacking a national military base and stealing weapons. In response, Abiy sent federal troops, or the Ethiopian National Defense Force, to Tigray and launched bombing raids near Tigray’s capital, Mekele, in a military offensive named Operation Law enforcement. TPLF fired missiles into Eritrea, a neighboring country assisting Abiy’s forces. Abiy ordered Internet blackouts, phone communication restrictions, and blockades on foreign aid to Tigray. In early 2021, the government revoked TPLF’s status as a legal party and designated TPLF as a terrorist organization.
A year later, the end to fighting is nowhere in sight. The civil war has killed thousands, and an investigation by the United Nations cited worsening human rights conditions including gang violence, human-caused famine, and mass expulsions. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced, causing a border conflict with Sudan. 16 UN staff have reportedly been detained in the capital. Reports emerged alleging that Mr. Abiy’s forces arrested journalists and ethnic Tigrayans. In fact, a United States document found evidence pointing to ethinic cleansing: “whole villages were severely damaged or completely erased.” The US State department advised US citizens to leave Ethiopia “as soon as possible.”
Prior to the war, many hoped for Mr. Abiy to bring unity to the country. He received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for freeing political prisoners and signing a peace deal with Eritrea, a former Ethiopian enemy. But some analysts now perceive the civil war and the aforementioned human rights allegations as a stain to Mr. Abiy’s reputation, as he rallies people to “sacrifice our blood and bone to bury this enemy.”
Meanwhile, the Oromo Liberation Army, formed from Abiy’s own Oromo ethnic group, pledged in May to wage “total war” to topple Abiy’s government and even entered an alliance with TPLF to accomplish said goal. The Oromo and Amhara people previously supported Abiy, Ethiopia’s first Oromo leader. But many Oromos turned against Abiy when his forces arrested Oromo opposition leaders and activists and closed the country’s only independent Oromo news outlet and regional violence against insurgents in Oromia left Oromos feeling ignored by Abiy.
Ethiopia has fought as a US partner against the terrorist group al-Shabab in Somalia. Now, the civil war jeopardizes regional stability. The United States maintains a large troop presence in Djibouti and views the Horn of Africa as strategically vital. President Biden has threatened to suspend Ethiopia’s preferential trade access which generates 100 M annual revenue and 100,000 jobs and to impose sanctions, calling for Abiy to negotiate towards peace.
Sources:
https://apnews.com/article/africa-united-nations-ethiopia-320c6cfa7434efe62a92faa03560a59f
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/world/middleeast/ethiopia-tigray-ethnic-cleansing.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-59265578
https://time.com/5871217/ethiopia-protests-haacaaluu/
https://www.vox.com/2021/11/7/22768365/ethiopia-capital-rebel-coalition-tplf-civil-war-explained
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/11/faq-ethiopia-conflict/
https://www.nytimes.com/article/ethiopia-tigray-conflict-explained.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/03/africa/ethiopia-tigray-explainer-2-intl/index.html
https://www.dw.com/en/who-are-the-tigray-fighters-and-why-is-ethiopia-at-war-with-them/a-59736874
https://african.business/2021/11/trade-investment/biden-suspends-ethiopia-guinea-and-mali-from-agoa/
Images:
https://www.nytimes.com/article/ethiopia-tigray-conflict-explained.html
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2019/abiy/photo-gallery/
https://time.com/5871217/ethiopia-protests-haacaaluu/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/11/faq-ethiopia-conflict/
https://www.dw.com/en/who-are-the-tigray-fighters-and-why-is-ethiopia-at-war-with-them/a-59736874
https://www.vox.com/22370629/ethiopia-tigray-eritrea-amhara-war-ethnic-cleansing